THE ECB Spring: Change in Tone with Strong and Long Term Commitment from the ECB

The main message from Mario Draghi at his press conference was the following “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.”
Official interest rates could go lower if needed. This means refi rate could go lower but also deposits facilities rate which in that case would become negative. This possibility has not change the way Mario Draghi answered questions. He just said that everything was ready to manage this possibility. Negative interest rate on deposits facilities is something that has been accepted at the ECB.
This long-term commitment was taken unanimously. Continue reading

Employment – The New Frontier for Women – Emploi – La nouvelle frontière pour les femmes


Voilà une vidéo courte mais pertinente sur la situation des femmes sur le marché du travail. Il est question de formation, de taux d’activité, de fiscalité et finalement du rôle que leur laissent les hommes. Vidéo en anglais

Here is a short but smart video on women’s situation on the labor market. Education, participation rate, tax policy and the relationship with men on the labor market and elsewhere. Very relevant. Video in english

3 Charts on the World Economy – Companies’ Surveys in June

June surveys in the manufacturing sector have brought a more heterogeneous dynamic than in the previous months. Asia is becoming weaker; Europe stronger and the USA try to find their way.
This heterogeneity is not bad news as this will create distinct expectation trends all over the world. This will contrast with the uniformity we’ve seen until recently.

The world index for the manufacturing sector was at the same level in June than in May at 50.6. There is an improvement in new orders which is compensated by deterioration in employment. But there is no strong tendency. Continue reading

Good News in the Euro Area may come from the South now

In Spain the synthetic index for the PMI/Markit survey shows stabilization in the manufacturing sector. In Italy the trend is upward but does not converge yet to stabilization (49.1 for the index). This can be seen on Chart 1.
In Spain the index is at 50 showing a stable activity for the first time since April 2011. The really good news is that the impulse comes from the New Export Orders index which jumped to 54.9 in June. It’s a very important first step for global economic stabilization in Spain
In Italy the main catalyst was production and if the New Export Orders remains above 50 (52.2) there is no spike comparable to Spain’s.

This is the first step for a renewal in the South