My Macroeconomic column in 8 points (October the 26th)

Published in French on October the 26th – Data expected this week but already published are briefly discussed.

8 points to keep in mind this week to highlight the macroeconomic momentum

1 – The improvement of the French economy is the real good news
The business climate index, published by INSEE the French Statistical Institute, is above its historical average for the first time since August 2011.
It shows how deep and persistent was the negative shock that has hit the French economy since this period. Looking at the different sectors, building construction is the only one being still on the weak side. Services, Industry and retail trade contribute positively to growth.
france-2015-october-business climateFor the French economy we also notice in the INSEE quarterly survey that expected demand is improving rapidly. Continue reading

A US Slowdown to come?

The downturn in the US industrial sector is confirmed month after month. September’s figures do not invalidate the trend observed since the beginning of the year.
The tension indicator, production capacity utilization rate, follows a downward trend since January. Here for an easier reading and for a rapid comparison with the unemployment rate I put excess capacity (100 Utilization Rate).
Since the early 90s the reversal of this indicator is a little ahead of the labor market. There may be still for a few months a divergent dynamics between the 2.
past developments suggest that lower tensions on the production side pull, at the end of the day, the unemployment rate with it. The slowdown would then be recorded and the Fed would be even more reluctant to get tough on monetary policy.


Video – Interview – Philippe Berthelot on the Credit Market – Financial Times

My very good friend Philippe Berthelot gave an interview to the Financial Times on the credit market : Accurate and Relevant

Click on the link

My Macroeconomic Column in 10 points (October the 12th)

Ten macroeconomic points to keep in mind this week

1 – The IMF has revised on the downside its forecast. In 2015 the world GDP will grow by 3.1% after 3.4% in 2014. Expectations for 2016 are marginally higher at 3.6%.
The main reason is in emerging countries which suffer with low commodity prices and the persistent weaker dynamics seen in China. The other point of concern is associated with higher Fed’s rates in the US. We feel a worried environment at this meeting

2 – The signature of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (or TPP) between the USA and 11 Asian partners (without China) is important. It is supposed to boost trade between all these members but we don’t know exactly what will happen in the balance of strength in this new framework. The arbitrage in case of conflict will be done by the World Trade Organization but we know that the role of states and companies will be different. This could be directly seen on the labor market conditions. As negotiations have been secret we need more details to clearly see the global picture and we will see with the experience how this TPP will work. Continue reading